I may have found the actual problem.
In the /storage/ directory there are a number of bx_... directories. All of them were owned by www-data except bx_timeline_videos_processed which was owned by root. I did a chown -R www-data:www-data bx_timeline_videos_processed and now posts from yesterday are showing up with working video's.
I have to check with other users to see if their videos are now working as well.
Keep your fingers crossed.
very interesting.. i see all my videos in the storage directories and however i dont even have a transcoder error log, but am a bit stuck on my setup. this was one of the only threads i had not read fully yet and checked off step by step..
all folders are owned by httpd/unix-directory so this is not the problem and all are 755